According to a December 2024 report from National Mortgage News, Donald Trump’s election victory created a wave of optimism throughout the mortgage industry. Many lenders and analysts believed that his administration, paired with a Republican controlled Congress, could lead to policy changes that might ease regulations, influence the future of government sponsored enterprises, and reshape housing related tax measures. While these developments reflected the expectations of that moment, they provide an informative look back at how the industry responded immediately after the election.

Why the Mortgage Industry Was Optimistic in Late 2024

The article noted that the mortgage industry had leaned pro Trump going into the election. A survey from Arizent revealed that fifty seven percent of respondents believed a Trump victory would benefit the industry. Meanwhile, half of those surveyed felt that a Harris administration would negatively affect their business.

With Republicans expanding their presence in the House, many industry players felt hopeful that regulatory relief and business friendly policies were more likely. Representatives French Hill and Andy Barr, known for their involvement in finance issues, emerged as contenders for leadership within the House Financial Services Committee following the retirement of Representative Patrick McHenry.

Even though Trump spoke very little about housing during his campaign, analysts predicted that his administration might revisit efforts to end the conservatorships of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Expectations for GSE Conservatorship and Mortgage Rates

BTIG analyst Eric Hagen observed in his November 2024 market roundup that a Trump administration could push the government sponsored enterprises toward recapitalization and a release from conservatorship. Hagen noted that preferred stockholders could potentially benefit because the GSEs had built significant capital through retained earnings.

However, he also clarified that any policy shift involving the GSEs would likely not have an immediate influence on mortgage rates. Broader economic factors, such as Treasury supply projections and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening program, remained the primary forces shaping rate movement at that time.

Property Tax Measures Decided in Local Elections

The article also covered several voter approved measures tied to property taxes and affordability across different states.

Florida voters passed Amendment 5, linking a major homestead exemption to annual inflation adjustments. Georgia voters approved Amendment 1, connecting property tax increases to inflation for current homeowners. Arizona voters passed Proposition 312, allowing homeowners to seek property tax refunds if their local governments did not enforce public nuisance laws and if the homeowners incurred related expenses.

Eddie Blanco of Stratwell, serving as chairman elect of the Miami Association of Realtors, shared his perspective in the article. He said that any step toward increased affordability was a positive move, especially for homeowners concerned about rising taxes during periods of inflation.

High Profile Commentary About the CFPB

The article referenced comments made by Elon Musk, who publicly stated that he wanted to eliminate the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Policy advisors pointed out that dissolving the agency would require an act of Congress, making such a move unlikely. Some conservative voices suggested focusing instead on redirecting the bureau toward an America First policy framework rather than attempting to abolish it completely.

Overall Industry Reaction Following the Election

After Trump’s win, Treasury yields rose as markets anticipated future interest rate cuts. Industry leaders expected reduced regulatory oversight and increased support for homeownership initiatives. Glenn Stearns, CEO of Kind Lending, told National Mortgage News that the next few years could offer more positive momentum and fewer regulatory hurdles for the lending industry.

Analysts also predicted that the Trump administration would influence the Federal Reserve Board by appointing new governors and shaping monetary policy direction. However, experts cautioned that timelines and tangible impacts were still uncertain.

Looking Back at the Industry’s Expectations

Although the report captured the political and economic outlook of late 2024, it offers valuable insight into how the mortgage industry was preparing for potential change. From anticipated adjustments to GSE oversight to predictions about regulation, property taxes, and monetary policy, industry leaders were bracing for shifts that could reshape the lending landscape.

Revisiting past reporting provides helpful historical context and a clearer understanding of how industry expectations aligned with the political moment.

Read the full article here: https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/how-trumps-win-is-impacting-the-mortgage-industry-post-election